Fun Topic: Focus on 'other' Androids? (aka HTC and Samsung results dissapoint)

I usually steer clear of topics that are on relevant for a short period of time or based on near-term predictions or forecasts. They have this 'nasty' habit of making people look silly. However the latest reports of earning for HTC and Samsung have sent shock-waves through their respective stocks and at least for 'me', made me re-think a few things...

See Mashable's article here:

http://mashable.com/2013/07/05/samsung-htc-earnings-analysis/

Basically the 'softening' that happened earlier for Apple stock seems to have trickled down to Samsung and HTC. For the record, Samsung is still 'growing' as it's profits jumped 47-50%, but that still wasn't as much as analyst wanted. HTC on the other-hand had a 83% drop in profit when compared to last year. (For Samsung, I find it rather incredible that 47% growth wasn't enough for "analysts". Maybe we need to pair JAY-Z with someone else... j/k)

*IF* I had to guess what happened here are 3 possibly 'theories' I have:

#1 - HTC First and it's joint venture with Facebook has gone south. It's HTC ONE was delayed a very critical few months earlier this year. This basically forced possible consumers to other platforms, most likely the Samsung Galaxy S4.  (Also shows you pure specs isn't enough. HTC J Butterfly had FullHD 1080P first, basically a 5" HTC ONE, but it's didn't dominate either...)

The HTC ONE "mini" or however they will name it is coming soon. If it comes up before the S4 Mini, maybe they can re-gain some traction. Ironically I actually like the HTC ONE. For example, a recent Twitter @Wayne_Pau convo of mine:

@Sarah_Sugoi @ericylai Have a HTC ONE tester. FullHD + cam = stunning. Beats is great. 32GB + SD = lots of space. Bigger though.

 #2 - Samsung S4 was 'OK'. If I *had* to choose, I would say HTC ONE was nicer than S4. I also felt that the S3 was only marginally different in many ways from S3. Note 2 is a much more radical device with Stylus/S-Pen, etc. I'm not entirely sure I'd be motivated as a user to upgrade from the S3 to S4 if I already had it.

  #3 - I believe we are seeing for Android devices what Apple saw a few months ago. I agree with Mashable article theory that everyone who wants a $600-800 Android Superphone may already (or nearly everyone) have one. 

The last point I believe is the most important. According to a few articles which cite IDC sources that HTC is actually *behind* Chinese Android Makers ZTE and Huawei in recent Android sales:

"The fact that Huawei and ZTE now find themselves among the Top 5 smartphone vendors marks a significant shift for the global market," said IDC research manager Ramon Llamas. "Both companies have grown volumes by focusing on the mass market, but in recent quarters they have turned their attention toward higher-end devices. In addition, both companies have pushed the envelope in terms of industrial design with larger displays and smaller form factors, as well as innovative applications and experiences."
(http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/25/3914390/idc-smartphone-report-apple-samsung-huawei-zte-in-top-five)

Smaller form factor and mass market (aka cheaper phones). I've had huge issues trying to get <4.7" Android phones locally in Canada for test devices.

More simliar info here:

http://www.livemint.com/Companies/t5kHWfpIZTPxsv4BhFSApI/HTC-earnings-miss-estimates.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/digest-samsung-htc-fall-short-of-forecasts/2013/07/05/a5a82d68-e291-11e2-aef3-339619eab080_story.html

In the spirit of full disclosure, Samsung is of course Korean (South) but HTC is technically Chinese, but not People's Republic China, rather the Republic of China aka Taiwan. 

For a while it seemed like it was going to be just Apple and Samsung and using the Apple model that meant focusing on faster and better devices as users obsolete devices quickly. Now I'm not so sure. *Maybe* the growth will soon be at the lower-end of the spectrum. I took out a iPhone 3Gs the other to test with. I was *shocked* show poor and small the display looked (next to HTC ONE, iPhone5 etc). 

Longer term, I think we may be seeing a trend towards growth in Android, but at the Feature-Phone (aka "Dummy Phone") end of the spectrum. This would be the $200-$300 handsets. The 'free with contract' type of devices with smaller screens and less frills. That means designing for less DPI, smaller screen and slower processors (opposite of the current trend bigger, faster, better looking devices being the 'norm' like Note2, S4 and ONE..). 

Thoughts? In the market for a new Android? Is it a HTC or Samsung? Or Other?

Hope that helps...

Wayne Pau.



p.s. More links on the HTC/Samsung fall:

• http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-htc-samsung-disappoint-smartphone-sales-slow-20130705,0,3830180.story
• http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-small-htc-one-20130611,0,6722673.story
• http://www.livemint.com/Companies/t5kHWfpIZTPxsv4BhFSApI/HTC-earnings-miss-estimates.html
• http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/its-not-just-apple-htc-samsung-suffer-from-high-expectations-slower-sales/2013/07/05/96d36ae6-e57f-11e2-a11e-c2ea876a8f30_story.html
• http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/digest-samsung-htc-fall-short-of-forecasts/2013/07/05/a5a82d68-e291-11e2-aef3-339619eab080_story.html
• http://www.scotsman.com/business/industry/htc-and-samsung-assailed-by-cheaper-chinese-rivals-1-2991280

Fun Topic: Software Developer vs. Computer Programmer (According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

So the other day I stumble on this site:

(http://www.bls.gov/home.htm)

I hear about BLS on the news all the time. According to BLS they are:

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor produces some of the Nation’s most widely followed measures of the economy."

I didn't realize they had an on-line "Occupation Finder". Basically it's a tool to tell you what the outlook will be for a particular job if you are younger person (or I guess a parent of a young person). 

So, I did what I always do when I find something new. I "played" with it. I kept playing around with the filters till I find job that is:

a) The Highest Paying (who couldn't use more $, right?)
b) Fastest Growing (who doesn't want job security, right?)
c) Lowest Education pre-req (who doesn't want the easiest path, right?)

Wanna guess what it was?

(http://www.bls.gov/ooh/occupation-finder.htm?pay=&education=&training=&newjobs=&growth=20+to+28+percent&submit=GO)

Basically it's "Software Developers". (Everything else seemed like Dr or other heath professional... This is why I believe the US needs Universal Healthcare... but another topic for another time...)

It's the only job that had 50,000+ jobs, in the highest pay bracket and only need a bachelor degree. 

Mark Twain (the pen name for Sammuel Clemens) once said "There are lies, damned lies and statistics." Never was that more true than now..

Honestly, I think the US Bureau of Labour needs to be 'LITTLE' more specifc. Is this mobile developers? Is this game developers? How big is this bucket? So I "click" similar jobs and I got this list:

http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm#tab-7

First I see is "Computer Programmers". Can anyone tell me how that is different from "Software Developer"? Doesn't Software run on Computers? Don't they both Develop Programs? 

(I *am* in the software industry. I have been for a long time. I am part of 60,000 person "Software Giant" in SAP. I can tell you right now, this is a very very vague title. There are SCRUM masters, there are UX experts, there are test suite managers, there are X-Coders, there are Android Developers, there are COBOL coders, there are QA experts, etc...*ALL* of these people come together to 'develop' software.)

Have a look at the description:

What Software Developers Do

Software developers are the creative minds behind computer programs. Some develop the applications that allow people to do specific tasks on a computer or other device. Others develop the underlying systems that run the devices or control networks.

What Computer Programmers Do

Computer programmers write code to create software programs. They turn the program designs created by software developers and engineers into instructions that a computer can follow.

Software developers account for 913,100 jobs, average pay of $90K a year and grow 30%. Computer programmers account for 363,100 jobs, average of $71K a year and grow only 12%?!? 

So what's the real answer if these jobs overlap? Do I add these together? Is there something I'm missing...The only thing I can conclude is that maybe Computer Programmers are just the 'coders'? However in that case, how can it be only 1/3 of the size of 'creative' Software Developers? I would assume that you'd need more execution people than designers, no?

I guess I shouldn't be surprised. The BLS also grouped Information Security Analysts, Web Developers, and Computer Network Architects into a single group. Web Developers, which according to BLS only develop web sites that provide a "public face" for companies. No HTML 5 or WebApp developers here. No private intra-net or on-line SaaS developers here...

However, I also found this text extremely 'interesting':

"...and additional knowledge of web programming languages can be helpful for web developers."

(http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/information-security-analysts-web-developers-and-computer-network-architects.htm)

Hmm... *cough*... I could see how 'knowing' HTML *might* be 'helpful' for web development. Or is HTML not a true 'Programming Language'?


Two things that scare me:

#1 - If this info is given to young people in jr high & high school, which they make some of the most important decisions of their life on. (Just imagine being read this info @ Grade 7 Career Education/Guidance class.)

#2 - If this info is used to create important and crucial future policy, or tax structures.

Either way I'm a little concerned if someone needs to take a critical eye and double-check the data before presenting it? I mean this is"Nation’s most widely followed measures of the economy", right? (BTW I'm sure Canada is no better...)


Thoughts?

Wayne Pau.